Political Breakdown

Xavier Becerra is poised to become California’s next governor. The former Health and Human Services Secretary emerged victorious from a messy primary that pitted him against a long list of fellow Democrats. He was stuck in single digits but surged after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out amid allegations of sexual assault and misconduct.

Since June, Becerra has had an easy sprint to the Nov. 3 election, with recent polls showing him at least 25 points ahead of his opponent, Republican Steve Hilton.

Becerra joins Marisa and Scott in studio to discuss his plan for the state if he is elected next week.

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Sarah Longwell has conducted hundreds of focus groups and spoken with thousands of American voters over the past decade. As a result, the former Republican strategist, who left the party after President Trump was elected in 2016, has become one of the nation’s preeminent experts on voter sentiment. Less than a week before election day, Longwell joins Marisa to discuss the state of U.S. politics in 2026.

Longwell is also the New York Times bestselling author of "How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time," publisher of The Bulwark and host of The Focus Group podcast.

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Election Day is around the corner, and if polls are right, Democrats are slated to get big wins across the country. But, some House Races in California are still up for grabs.

Scott, Marisa and Guy assess the state of those key races. Plus, they dig into the state ballot measures that have gained widespread attention this election season, like Propositions 40 and 45.

Then, they discuss their predictions for the midterm election outcomes.

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Governor Newsom is facing a big decision before he leaves office — whether to commute the death sentences of more than 500 condemned inmates and convert them to life in prison without the possibility of parole. His choice could gain national attention.

Scott and Marisa sit down with Melanie Mason, California Bureau Chief at POLITICO. They discuss the political implications of Newsom’s decision as he prepares for a likely run for president in 2028.

Plus, they talk about Proposition 40, the so-called billionaire tax, opposed by Newsom and the candidates hoping to succeed him as governor: Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton.

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Can a progressive Democrat win in the Central Valley? Marisa sits down with Randy Villegas in Bakersfield as the community college professor attempts to unseat Republican Congressman David Valadao in California’s 22nd Congressional District. Democrats hold a registration advantage here, but the seat has been stubbornly difficult for them to win. Villegas is running a very different campaign than past unsuccessful Democrats.

Political Breakdown also extended multiple invitations to have Valadao on the show, but he has not responded.

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San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert is running for Congress in a tight race against Republican Jim Desmond, a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors.

Von Wilpert, a former deputy city attorney and Peace Corps volunteer, is hoping to flip California’s 48th District, one of just three swing districts left in the state after last year’s redistricting. She joins Marisa and Scott to talk about her campaign and what’s at stake in the race.

Political Breakdown also invited Desmond on the show but has not heard back.

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Big Tech interests are spending tens of millions in California’s state legislative races this election cycle. Marisa and Scott sit down with KQED’s Izzy Bloom, who’s been reporting on the spending in a local North Bay Assembly race. They discuss what it reveals about a shift in political spending strategy by tech industry leaders.

Then, they’re joined by KQED’s Laura Fitzgerald to discuss the Trump administration's lawsuit this week against California, demanding state elections officials withhold ballots from 20,000 voters that the Department of Justice flagged as potentially ineligible.

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San Francisco crypto billionaire Chris Larsen has become an increasingly engaged and potent political force in Democratic politics. He’s funded surveillance technology like Flock cameras in the city and poured tens of millions of dollars into the state’s legislative races this election cycle. As much of his tech peers rally around President Donald Trump, Larsen remains a staunch Democrat.

Larsen joins Marisa in studio to discuss where he disagrees with his son on surveillance technology, his bold call to “shut down all the data centers until we get goddamn regulations,” why he opposes the billionaire tax initiative Proposition 40 and what kind of candidates he’s supporting through his super PAC Grow California.

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California’s 1st Congressional District was at the center of last year’s partisan redistricting wars. The district used to encompass the rural northeast corner of the state — a red stronghold in blue California. Democrats moved it southwest, drawing in more blue regions like the city of Santa Rosa, when they redrew the congressional maps. It’s now considered a safe Democratic seat.

Marisa and Scott sit down with the Republican and the Democrat vying to represent this new district in Congress.

First, they talk to Rep. James Gallagher, a former state Assembly member. He was elected to represent the old district earlier this year after the sudden death of longtime Republican Congressman Doug LaMalfa.

Then, they are joined by state Sen. Mike McGuire, who has represented the North Bay in the Legislature since 2014 and spent three years as Senate leader.

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Central Valley Republican Congressman David Valado and his Democratic challenger, college professor Randy Villegas, faced off in a debate earlier this week. Marisa and Guy talk to one of the moderators, FOX40 anchor Nikki Laurenzo, about the showdown in Bakersfield and what it means for control of Congress.

Then, Republican political consultant Mike Madrid joins them to discuss how Democrats are trying to win back working-class Latino voters. Does progressive Villegas or the more moderate Rep. Adam Gray make a more compelling case?

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Democratic Congressman Adam Gray won his seat two years ago by just 187 votes. After last year’s partisan redistricting war, the 13th Congressional District is slightly more favorable to him, but Gray is still considered to be in a tough fight to hold on to his seat. He faces former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln II. Marisa sits down with Gray at his campaign office in Merced to discuss why the moderate Democrat thinks both parties need to turn down the temperature.

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Proposition 43 on the November ballot would raise the requirement for increasing special taxes placed on the ballot by citizens. Right now it takes a simple majority to pass those taxes, but Prop. 43 would require a two-thirds vote.

The initiative is supported by business groups and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. Meanwhile, unions and the California League of Cities say Prop. 43 would cripple their ability to raise critical revenue at a time when the federal government is slashing funding to state and local governments.

Scott and Marisa talk to the No on 43 campaign’s Bill Barnes, who is director of campaigns and community engagement for the Non-Profit Housing Association of Northern California. Marisa previously discussed the Yes campaign with Jon Coupal, president of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.

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The two candidates vying to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi in Congress faced off in a live onstage debate at KQED on Oct. 1, moderated by Political Breakdown co-hosts Scott Shafer and Marisa Lagos and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli.

City Supervisor Connie Chan and State Senator Scott Wiener presented their visions for the future and explored issues facing the city including affordability, tech and the economy, immigration, foreign conflicts and the role of San Francisco in national politics.

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Political Breakdown analyzes Thursday night’s debate between State Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, the two Democrats fighting to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi in Congress. Scott and Marisa moderated the live onstage debate at KQED alongside the San Francisco Chronicle’s Joe Garofoli. Plus, Scott previews his new podcast series “The Speaker,” on Pelosi’s remarkable life and career.

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Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton used last night’s CNN gubernatorial debate to frame the race as President Trump versus the Democratic establishment. Marisa, Guy and CNN’s Los Angeles anchor and correspondent Elex Michaelson discuss how each candidate performed and whether the debate moved the needle in a race where Becerra leads by 25 points, according to the latest Berkeley IGS poll.

Then, Marisa and Guy turn to California’s most competitive House races. How are the war in Iran and soaring gas prices playing in the few remaining swing districts after last year’s gerrymandering war?

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Proposition 45 would put a shot clock on environmental reviews under the California Environmental Quality Act, or CEQA. Opponents say CEQA still protects people and the environment from harmful development. Marisa talks with Jordan Grimes, legislative director at the Bay Area environmental group Greenbelt Alliance, who oppose the measure.

Last week, Marisa spoke with Jennifer Barrera, CEO of the California Chamber of Commerce, which is leading the campaign in support of Prop. 45.

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Is the California governor’s race finally heating up? New polls show that although Democrat Xavier Becerra is on track to win the November election, voters are lukewarm on him. Marisa, Guy and KQED’s Laura Fitzgerald analyze the polling and look ahead to next week’s debate between Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton.

Then they dig into this week’s California Supreme Court ruling against Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Attorney General Rob Bonta won that case, but he’s taking heat from his left flank for settling with Paramount and clearing the way for its $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.

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California voters will choose who oversees the state's elections in the secretary of state race this November. That decision comes as the Trump administration has tried to get states to hand over voter roll data, attempted to restrict mail-in voting, placed federal election monitors at California polls and pushed for proof of citizenship requirements at voter registration.

Secretary of State Shirley Weber has led the office since 2021 and has pushed back against the federal government's attempts to seize more control over state elections. Her GOP opponent in the race, Orange County Supervisor Don Wagner, said the state should institute voter ID and speed up the counting process. Marisa sits down with Weber and Wagner to talk about their competing visions for elections in California.

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On this special bonus episode, we air the first episode of KQED's new limited series podcast 'The Speaker,' reported and hosted by Political Breakdown co-host Scott Shafer. It's a look at former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's life and legacy as she prepares to retire after nearly four decades in Congress. Marisa talks to Scott about the genesis and focus of the series.

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Proposition 45 on the November ballot would reform the California Environmental Quality Act, also known as CEQA. Proponents argue the measure would help with the state’s affordability crisis by speeding up housing construction.

However, public polling shows support for the measure has tanked in the last few months as critics argue the measure would make it easier to build data centers, which are deeply unpopular with voters.

Marisa talks to Jennifer Barrera, CEO of the California Chamber of Commerce, a group leading the campaign in support of Prop. 45. Tune in next week to hear the opposition side of the initiative.

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