The Global Gambit

“The old West is dead.” Mark Leonard argues that Europe must prepare for a lasting change in its relationship with America — and recognise that it has more power to shape its future than it often believes.

The director and co-founder of the European Council on Foreign Relations joins Pyotr Kurzin to discuss how Europe can sustain Ukraine’s defence, use its leverage over Russia and take responsibility for negotiations over its own security. What would a settlement need to protect Ukraine’s independence, and why does Leonard consider Europe’s failure to maintain direct channels with Putin a “catastrophic dereliction of duty”?

We also explore the political upheaval reshaping France and the wider continent, why Putin could benefit from Europe’s electoral divisions, and how European investment and a stronger single market could help resist economic pressure from Washington, Beijing and Moscow.

Mark Leonard is the author of Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail.

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Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials have arrived in Tehran together, and the symbolism is hard to ignore. As the war between Riyadh and the Houthis spills onto Saudi soil, reaching Riyadh and its airport, the kingdom is turning to Iran for help. Tehran, however, is backing the Houthi demand that the air blockade on Sanaa be lifted before the fighting stops.

Trita Parsi argues that this is what restrainers have long predicted. When Washington steps back, regional states take on more responsibility for their own security. They will not solve every problem, but they stop relying on American force. In his view, the American military presence has done more to destabilise the Middle East than to secure it.

In this conversation, Parsi reveals that Israeli aircraft reportedly breached Iranian airspace over the weekend, and that Tehran deliberately chose not to respond. He explains why Iran judged it a trap, designed to provoke a war without Israeli fingerprints and to sabotage its talks with Gulf neighbours. He also explains why renewed hostility between Iran and the Arab states is exactly what the Abraham Accords depend on.

Trita Parsi is Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a leading expert on US–Iran relations. His latest analysis appears on Responsible Statecraft and his Substack.

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Donald Trump’s war with Iran is colliding with a growing political struggle at home. With the midterms approaching, the prospect of electoral defeat could increase the temptation to escalate abroad — even as Iran seeks to turn economic disruption and regional instability into leverage against Washington.

But Professor Robert Pape warns that the greatest danger may come after the votes are cast. He argues that the period between November’s elections and the seating of a new Congress could create a particularly volatile combination of military escalation, political violence and attempts to expand presidential power.

In this conversation, Pape explains how an initially successful American ground operation could become a prolonged military trap, why Iran could respond more aggressively to renewed attacks, and what reported threats against US diplomats could signal about the next phase of the conflict. He also examines the pressures on global oil supplies, whether a change of leadership in Israel could alter the trajectory towards war, and why the interaction between foreign conflict and domestic political turmoil poses such a serious test for American democracy.

Robert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a leading scholar of air power, political violence and international security. He writes The Escalation Trap, examining the dynamics driving the conflict with Iran.

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Weeks after signing a sweeping sanctions law against Russia’s energy revenues, Donald Trump has struck a deal to buy Russian diesel, announced while his envoys sat down with Ukrainian officials to discuss ending the war. Trump calls it a win. In Moscow, it looks like something else entirely.

In this conversation, I’m joined by Tina Fordham, geostrategist, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, and Wall Street’s original chief global political analyst during seventeen years at Citi, who previously built Eurasia Group’s financial markets research business. We examine why Trump keeps offering deals that Putin never takes, why Putin puts power ahead of any commercial offer, and why the man many in the West mistook for a pragmatist is driven by ideology and legacy. We also look at how the Iran war, launched to project American strength, has left Washington weaker and Trump facing the midterms with soaring prices.

We also discuss Putin’s Valdai remarks and nuclear sabre-rattling over Kaliningrad, what happens to Russia after Putin, why China is quietly waiting for Russian decline, why markets keep shrugging off geopolitical shocks, her research showing geopolitical risk has tripled since 2010, and why the world feels worse than ever when by most measures it isn’t. Tina’s latest book is Mad World: A Geostrategy Survival Guide for Leaders: https://link.amazon/B0h8xEhws

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Ukraine has transformed Russia’s vast geography from a source of strategic depth into a growing vulnerability. Its long-range drones are striking oil refineries, supply lines and military infrastructure, while Crimea is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow to defend and sustain.

But Sir Lawrence Freedman warns against assuming that Russia’s mounting failures have made Ukraine’s position easy. Ukrainian civilians face another punishing winter, ballistic missiles remain an acute threat, and Vladimir Putin continues to resist any settlement that could be interpreted as weakness.

In this conversation, Freedman explains why Putin has boxed himself in, whether Russia can find enough soldiers to sustain the war, how Ukraine remains ahead in the rapidly evolving drone contest, and why the next six months could prove decisive. He also examines the economic pressures building inside Russia, the amateurism of Washington’s negotiating effort, NATO’s struggle to catch up with Ukrainian innovation, and whether Putin will eventually be forced to confront the futility of his war.

Sir Lawrence Freedman is Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London and one of the world’s foremost authorities on strategy, conflict and military history.

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Russia’s war in Ukraine has done more than redraw Europe’s security map. It has exposed the limits of military alliances—and triggered a potentially dangerous chain reaction far beyond the battlefield.

For Turkey, the choice is not simply between Vladimir Putin and NATO. Ankara is maintaining its relationship with Moscow, strengthening its position inside the Western alliance and reducing its dependence on Russia, all while seeking greater freedom to act alone. That pursuit of “strategic autonomy” may now extend to the nuclear question.

Turkey expert Gönül Tol joins Pyotr Kurzin to explain Erdoğan’s carefully calibrated strategy. They discuss how Ukraine changed Ankara’s relationship with Russia; why Turkey has avoided fully choosing sides; its efforts to diversify its energy supplies; and how the Iran war and declining confidence in American security guarantees are reshaping Turkish thinking.

Is Turkey actually preparing to build a nuclear weapon—or merely creating the capacity to keep that option open? And what would its choices mean for NATO, Russia, the Middle East and the future of nuclear proliferation?

Gönül Tol is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and the author of Erdoğan’s War: A Strongman’s Struggle at Home and in Syria. Her new report is here: https://mei.edu/publication/turkeys-nuclear-ambitions-in-the-post-iran-war-environment/

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General Ben Hodges says Russia is already at war with Europe. Not with missiles striking NATO cities, but through drones, sabotage and attacks designed to frighten populations and weaken support for Ukraine. So why are European governments still reluctant to impose meaningful consequences?

Hodges joins me to discuss Germany’s far-right breakthrough, NATO’s response to Russian provocations and the growing uncertainty over American support. We also examine how Ukraine’s long-range strikes are turning Russia’s vast territory from a strategic advantage into a vulnerability—and why Putin faces a dangerous choice over mobilisation as winter approaches.

Ben Hodges is the former Commanding General of US Army Europe.

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Iran has been militarily devastated — and yet, six months on, it may be winning. General David Petraeus argues that Tehran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has become a "weapon of mass disruption" more powerful than the nuclear program the war was meant to destroy.

In this conversation, I'm joined by General David Petraeus — former CENTCOM and NATO commander, former CIA Director, and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute — to examine why Iran's strategy may be succeeding despite its military weakness, why Ukraine's drone war represents a genuine revolution that Western militaries have failed to adapt to, and why Petraeus believes the US and UK urgently need revolutionary, not evolutionary, institutional military reform.

We also discuss Russia's deepening economic collapse, the vulnerability of manned military platforms in modern warfare, escalating Russian sabotage against NATO states, and why Petraeus believes nuclear escalation from Putin remains unlikely despite the rhetoric.

If war has already changed as fundamentally as Petraeus suggests, the deciding question isn't who has the better weapons — it's who adapts to the new war fast enough to survive it.

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Description:

Intelligence failures make headlines. Intelligence successes rarely do — which is exactly the problem when trying to understand how the West actually predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and what it can and can't tell us about Putin's next move.

In this conversation, I'm joined by Charles Finfrock — a former CIA officer with 18 years of experience across the Middle East, Europe, and Asia — to examine how intelligence assessments are actually built. Why there's a critical difference between a "secret" that can be stolen and a "mystery" that even Putin himself may not have resolved, how human sources, satellite imagery, and signals intelligence get fused into a single judgment, and why getting Russia's 2022 invasion right was a genuine intelligence success even if it couldn't prevent the war.

We also discuss Russia's escalating willingness to target Western and dual citizens on NATO soil, Ukraine's campaign against Russian commanders and energy infrastructure, and the historical pattern behind strategic surprise — from Stalin's refusal to believe Sorge's warnings to October 7th.

If Russia is preparing for another confrontation, the intelligence may already be there. The harder question is whether anyone is willing to believe it.

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Summary

Iran's regime survives. The Strait of Hormuz is under threat. Gulf allies are furious. And the United States, further from its goals than when the war began, has spent months exposing the limits of its own power in the process. Jason Campbell, joins The Global Gambit to break down how Trump's Iran war became a self-inflicted collapse of American leverage in the Middle East: the depleted munitions stocks, the abandoned Gulf partners, the diplomatic sidelining on the Strait of Hormuz talks, and why China may be the war's quietest long-term winner.

About the guest

Jason Campbell is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute focusing on US foreign policy, defense strategy, and Middle East security, and spent fifteen years at the RAND Corporation.

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Description:

Former US National Security Advisor Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster joins The Global Gambit to examine why China, Russia and Iran have become the defining geopolitical challenge of our time. We discuss Beijing's support for Moscow, the changing character of warfare, NATO's future, Western fatigue over Ukraine, and why China may ultimately be the greatest long-term beneficiary of today's global instability — including whether Beijing's ambitions extend to annexing Russian territory in Siberia, and what the axis means for Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific.

About the guest

Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster served as the 26th US National Security Advisor and is one of America's leading military strategists and experts on great-power competition.

Timestamps

• 00:00 – Introduction and General McMaster's background
• 01:01 – Initial developments in Ukraine and Middle East tensions
• 02:19 – China, Russia and Iran's strategic partnership
• 03:33 – The evolving character of warfare with drones and space
• 06:19 – Historical parallels: World War I and modern warfare
• 07:31 – Limitations of the Russia-Iran-China axis
• 09:05 – Western fatigue and the Russian war in Ukraine
• 10:28 – China and Russia's role in global power shifts
• 11:30 – Weaknesses of the axis powers and future prospects
• 14:27 – The Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western support
• 17:47 – China's military and economic standing
• 18:47 – NATO's future without US support
• 20:42 – Chinese economic power and global influence
• 36:36 – Russia's future in the context of Chinese expansion
• 38:19 – The outlook for Ukraine and Middle East conflicts
• 41:17 – The long war against Iran and regional stability
• 44:13 – Closing remarks and optimism for democracy

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In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin hosts Dr. Bence Nemeth to explore Europe's strategic autonomy, defense capabilities, and the evolving landscape of NATO and EU military cooperation amid the Ukraine conflict and broader geopolitical shifts.

Bence Nemeth is a Senior Lecturer at the Defence Studies Department of King’s College London, where he primarily teaches British and international military officers at the Defence Academy of the UK.

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Trump says he has secured a major breakthrough with Iran, but is the deal even worse than many are already claiming? And are details taking so long to release?

Joining me today is Ian Bremmer, founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, to discuss the emerging US-Iran agreement, why many analysts remain sceptical, and whether Washington is actually in a weaker position than before the conflict began.

We examine the future of the Iran deal, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's foreign policy decision-making, growing divisions within the Middle East, China's expanding influence, and what all of this means for the balance of power in the region and beyond. We also discuss Europe, the G7, Russia, and the increasingly strained relationship between America and its allies.

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Senator Mark Kelly just returned from Odessa. His verdict: Ukraine has effectively shut down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea — Russia can't operate there anymore.

Crimea is next.Full conversation with the Senator on what he saw on the ground, the momentum shift, and why Putin is running out of options.

Senator Mark Kelly is a retired Navy combat pilot, NASA astronaut, and sitting US Senator for Arizona serving on the Armed Services and Intelligence Committees.

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Ukraine just struck Putin's hometown during the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Is this a genuine shift in momentum or another false dawn in a war that keeps defying predictions?

Dan Ridler, Senior Analyst for Europe at the Economist Intelligence Unit, joins to cut through the noise. We get into how the EIU actually forecasts war outcomes, why the battlefield probably won't decide this conflict, what the frozen conflict scenario gets wrong, and the one underappreciated path toward peace that most analysts are missing.

Plus — how do you verify Russian economic data when Moscow keeps hiding it? And what's the single biggest variable that will determine where this war goes next?

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America is in a moment of self-inflicted crisis — and the man responsible may not be able to find a way out. Trump has started a war he promised he wouldn't, fractured his own base, and tied his political fate to every price rise and policy failure.

In this episode, I speak with Tom Nichols about why Trump's domestic troubles are uniquely of his own making, what the Iran war reveals about the collapse of MAGA's anti-interventionist promise, and whether the Republican Party can survive the contradictions Trump has created. We also explore what all of this means for Ukraine, Russia's future, and American power on the world stage.

Tom Nichols is a staff writer at The Atlantic and Professor Emeritus at the U.S. Naval War College.

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The ceasefire may have slowed the fighting - but according to former JCPOA adviser Alan Eyre, the underlying dynamics between the United States, Iran, and Israel have barely changed at all.

In this conversation, we break down why the US-Iran talks remain stuck at “square one,” why Tehran believes time is on its side, and why the current pause in hostilities could simply be the calm before another round of escalation.

Alan Eyre is Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute.

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Donald Trump's war with Iran is the reflection of something much bigger, perhaps much worse, happening with the USA, its foreign policy and its standing in the evolving world order. Can the United States still impose political outcomes abroad without triggering wider economic, geopolitical, and strategic blowback?

In this part 1 of 2 Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan joins The Global Gambit to break down the dangerous new phase of the US-Iran conflict, why Trump’s strategy may be backfiring, and what this confrontation reveals about the future of American power. From escalation traps and nuclear deterrence to China’s growing advantage and the global economic fallout, this conversation explores why the Iran crisis is about far more than just the Middle East.

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The US-Iran ceasefire may still technically be holding — but experts worry and warn that it is already beginning to rot. In this conversation, we break down why Iran is targeting the UAE, why the Strait of Hormuz remains the key pressure point, and why Trump’s attempt to claim victory may be colliding with economic reality.

Alan Eyre - distinguished diplomatic fellow at the Middle East Institute, argues that the real test is not rhetoric, press conferences, or military theatre — it is whether ships actually return to Hormuz. If maritime traffic does not resume, the crisis could become far more expensive, far more global, and far harder for Washington to control.

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Global democracy is changing and Hungary’s election may signal more than just a political shift — it could mark the beginning of a broader democratic rebound.

In this episode, I speak with Katherine Stewart about whether the world is moving out of a decade-long “democracy recession,” why Orbán’s defeat matters, and what it tells us about the resilience of democratic systems. We also explore the global implications — from Ukraine and Europe to rising political risk and shifting power dynamics worldwide.

Katherine Stewart is the Head of Impact Research at Economist Impact, part of The Economist Group.

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