The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

A flaw sat for years in the code beneath most of the world's websites until an AI model went looking for it (See: PHP2Shell). Dror Poleg, an economic historian who writes about technology and work, doesn't think patching ends the story: the attack surface only widens, and some things may have to come off the internet altogether. Then to Israel, voting on October 27, where Benjamin Netanyahu campaigns against dangers his own government deepened and has floated crypto as a hedge against sanctions. Last, two fathers of small children compare notes on raising them alongside the machines. The main thing to do about AI, it turns out, is other things.

Cue the newest show in the Perch Podcasts sphere - Minor Powers. Jacob Shapiro and Dror Poleg are embarking on a weekly journey to discuss tech, war, AI, and how to be a dad in the 21st century.

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(00:00) - Intro/Welcome

(01:57) - Black October and the PHP flaw

(05:54) - The end of the internet?

(09:09) - Banking, privacy and encryption

(12:04) - Learning to live with the risk

(13:48) - Israel votes

(16:54) - Netanyahu's bench and the FlyDubai plot

(21:35) - Crypto against sanctions

(25:38) - A state like any other

(27:54) - Young voters and the old guard

(28:54) - Will AI kill the creative class?

(34:24) - Raising kids around AI

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Dror Poleg's Site: https://www.drorpoleg.com/

Dror Poleg's Twitter: https://x.com/drorpoleg

Dror Poleg's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/drorpoleg/

Dror Poleg's Substack: https://newsletter.drorpoleg.com/

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Dror Poleg is an economic historian and former tech and private-equity executive. He researches technology’s impact on work, markets, and the built world. Dror’s writing has appeared in The New York Times and The Atlantic, and his insights have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and The Times of London. He briefs leadership teams at companies like JPMorgan, UBS, and HSBC.

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Minor Powers is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

Ukraine has had three revolutions since 1990: students on Kyiv's granite square, the Orange crowds of 2004, the Maidan in 2014. Volodymyr Ishchenko, a sociologist at the Institute for East European Studies in Berlin, argues that none of them built a stronger state, and that this, more than any Russian tank, explains where Ukraine stands now: a country whose budget is largely paid for by the European Union, run by elites who bet everything on an international order that may not outlast the war. He follows the argument all the way down, to who can pay a bribe to escape the draft, and who cannot.

(00:00) - Intro/Welcome

(01:14) - Is Ukraine still a sovereign state?

(09:34) - Where the sovereignty went

(14:49) - Three "weak, deficient revolutions"

(18:51) - Israel, South Korea and other borrowed models

(22:04) - Europe's Foederati

(26:13) - The Georgian path

(30:00) - Can Europe get its act together?

(34:29) - Did the invasion make sense for Russia?

(41:47) - Who rallied around Putin, and why

(46:44) - Winners and losers on both sides

(55:19) - "A Ukraine of our dreams" and the draft economy

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Volodymyr Ischenko - https://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/en/soziologie/team/team2/ishchenko.html

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

A Brazilian congressman runs a WhatsApp channel called "Lula's Army." This week it passed ten million followers, part of a late surge that has turned a race Lula was losing into a near tie. Monica de Bolle of the Peterson Institute for International Economics maps what Sunday's runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro decides: who fills at least three of the Supreme Court's eleven seats, whether anyone fixes debt rules built for an age of runaway inflation, and who controls the world's second-largest rare earth reserves - where an American company has agreed to buy a mine. Monica is extremely confident in at least one thing: "The potential to disappoint is enormous."

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(00:00) - Intro/Welcome

(01:20) - A race that flipped in three weeks

(03:33) - Meta, WhatsApp and the online campaign

(05:39) - Supreme Court seats and the Orbán comparison

(09:47) - Lula's record, and the market's hope for a Brazilian Milei

(15:40) - Why Brazil's interest rates are so high

(21:24) - The reforms nobody will make

(26:09) - Washington, Beijing and Brazil's new trade deals

(33:36) - Can Brazil lead? Rare earths and a mine in Goiás

(41:46) - Why micro-entrepreneurs left Lula

(47:14) - The military and Brazil's regional role

(51:36) - "The potential to disappoint is enormous"

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Brazil was always the country of the future - prophesied as a new Eden since the sixteenth century, promised great things that never quite arrived. Alex Hochuli’s argument is that the future caught up to Brazil from the other direction. The wealthy world didn’t pull the laggards forward; it declined to meet them. A shrinking middle class, patrimonial politics, collapsing trust, gated condominiums and open sewers alongside WhatsApp. This is Brazilianization, and Hochuli joins from São Paulo days after Lula’s loss in the first round to explain what it looks like from inside. A bleak conversation, honestly held - and one that argues the center didn’t get stolen from. It ran out of things to say.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome and Guest Intro

01:45 Alex Journey to Brazil

04:05 Election Shock and Polls

06:57 Why Voters Want Change

10:07 Lula Coalition and Constraints

12:54 Security and Cost of Living

15:28 Brazil in Regional Context

19:18 Scandals and Hyper Online Politics

23:02 Where Did the Left Go

24:03 Work Precarity and New Aspirations

28:50 Gambling Faith and Get Rich Culture

32:04 Evangelical Surge Explained

34:51 Urban Insecurity and Community

36:20 Religion Shifts Politics Right

37:18 Brazilianization Goes Global

38:44 Modernization Ends and Decay

43:48 Flexibility Era Revisited

45:45 China as an Exception

50:13 US China and Brazil Voice

53:46 Why Brazil Lacks a Project

57:10 Identity Crisis and Interior Boom

59:38 Hope Interregnum and Rightward Energy

01:03:21 Closing Anecdotes and Farewell

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Eritrea and (a Tigrayan-led) Ethiopia fought one of Africa’s deadliest wars against each other. Then Eritrea helped Ethiopia crush Tigray. Now Eritrea and Tigray are fighting Ethiopia together. Confusing? Super. Nicholas Norbrook of The Africa Report maps the forces pulling at a country that was, until recently, one of the fastest-growing economies on earth - a messianic prime minister with a very young team, Emirati money on several sides at once, Egypt quietly assembling a coalition to box Addis in, and a short run to the Red Sea coast that would be very easy to attempt and very hard to survive.

We've put together a little primer on the conflict because this one is confusing as hell.

General Context:

Eritrea was a federated part of Ethiopia from the 1950's until the 1990s. Tigray is a region in northern Ethiopia, and Tigrayans are the ethnic group who live there - roughly 6% of Ethiopians identify as Tigrayan, although the Tigrayan People's Libreration front ruled Ethiopia from 1991-2018. Tigrayans speak Tigrinya - the same language as the Eritrean highlanders just across the border (the Tigrinya people), who make up about half of Eritrea’s population. Same language, same church, same highland culture, split by a border Italy drew in the 1890s.

Modern Conflict Timeline:

• 1991 - The TPLF (Tigrayan People's Liberation Front) overthrows Ethiopia’s military dictatorship and runs the country until 2018. Eritrea gains its independence and breaks away fully from Ethiopia.
• 1998 - A border war with Eritrea is fought by a Tigrayan-led Ethiopia, largely on Tigrayan ground, with ~100,000+ people dead. Conflict ends in 2000.
• 2018 - Abiy Ahmed takes power in Ethiopia, sidelines the TPLF, makes peace with Eritrea, and collects a Nobel Peace Prize.
• 2020 - Eritrean troops help Abiy Ahmed crush Tigrayan resistance. The Pretoria Agreement freezes that war in November 2022 without settling any of it.
• 2026 - In September, the fighting reignited, now with Tigray and Eritrea loosely opposing Ethiopia.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:20) - Abiy Ambition and Ethiopia

(03:33) - Development Model Shift

(06:39) - South Korea Lessons METEC

(09:13) - New War Regional Risks

(11:15) - Ethno Federalism and TPLF

(13:16) - Outside Powers and Dam

(15:40) - Why Regions Splinter

(20:56) - Unraveling or Recohere

(26:30) - Eritrea Whiplash Explained

(31:53) - Gulf Rivalries and Drones

(38:07) - What Happens Next

(42:04) - Why This Matters Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

The Africa Report: https://www.theafricareport.com/author/nicholas-norbrook/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters

(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags

(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership

(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom

(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears

(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection

(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter

(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe

(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall

(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History

(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt

(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk

(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole

(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules

(35:03) - Universities Under Strain

(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play

(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation

(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players

(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash

(50:19) - Sports as Social Barometer

(54:19) - Closing Thanks and Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

The Pulse: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/tag/the-pulse/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Podcast Welcome

(00:44) - Recording In Amazon

(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima

(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia

(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop

(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed

(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal

(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move

(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet

(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region

(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox

(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing

(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves

(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region

(36:58) - Security As A Pretext

(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint

(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0

(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model

(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission

(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands

(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a geoscientist at McGill, studies where it comes from and who pays the price for it. Dubai imports its sand from Australia. Greenland's melting ice sheet is quietly producing a new export. And somewhere in Rwanda, a woman crushes stones by hand for two weeks to earn twenty dollars. The foundation of the modern world turns out to be a resource with no lobby, no regulation, and a growing body count.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro!

(01:20) - Jacob Meets Expert

(02:26) - Why Sand Matters

(04:08) - Which Sand Works

(05:45) - Where Demand Explodes

(09:05) - Scarcity And Prices

(12:02) - Dubai Imports Sand

(13:32) - Greenland Sand Boom

(19:04) - Africa And Mekong Mining

(23:36) - Alternatives And Recycling

(27:18) - Singapore Land Reclamation

(34:13) - Why Study Sand

(36:08) - Policy And Labor Dilemmas

(43:06) - Wrap Up And Takeaways

(46:50) - Outro And Credits

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Referenced in the Show:

Mette Bendixon - https://www.mettebendixen.com/

Time Is Running Out For Sand (Nature) - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02042-4

Reddit Thread - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1usi0ze/what_is_a_multibillion_dollar_industry_that_the/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(00:10) - Meet Michael Every

(02:39) - Why This Debate

(04:03) - Canada Opening Salvo

(06:07) - Every on Strategy

(10:15) - Canada EU China Options

(16:20) - Sovereignty and Pain

(21:44) - Defense Reality Check

(27:15) - US Threat vs Russia

(31:07) - US Security Red Lines

(34:21) - Polling Turns on Canada

(35:10) - Tariffs Without Strategy

(35:41) - Japan and Korea Pushback

(37:23) - Supply Chains Still China

(37:48) - Defining Real Statecraft

(38:18) - Macro Strategy Defense

(41:36) - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach

(43:53) - Trial and Error Governance

(45:17) - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran

(48:06) - What Actually Comes Back

(51:52) - Work Culture and Foundry Schools

(52:55) - Rebuilding the Whole System

(57:21) - Fear Moments and Next Steps

(01:00:26) - Stablecoins and New Finance

(01:02:26) - Scale Matters Canada vs US

(01:03:15) - Closing and Where to Follow

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Referenced in the Show:

Michael Every -https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives.

Do we want richer world or a better one?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:16) - Why El Niño Matters Now

(02:47) - El Niño and IOD Explained

(07:48) - Teleconnections and Predictability

(09:47) - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing

(11:53) - Defining Normal in Climate Data

(14:39) - How El Niño Is Measured

(22:19) - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype

(26:59) - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines

(32:08) - How Gnarly Is El Niño

(34:31) - Warming World Impacts

(35:20) - Counting El Niño Costs

(38:16) - El Niño to La Niña

(39:12) - Springback Physics Explained

(42:32) - Trillions in Damages

(44:00) - Causal Inference Methods

(50:09) - Conflict and Thresholds

(01:00:03) - Five Year Outlook

(01:05:42) - Closing and Credits

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Referenced in the Show:

Justin's Research - https://jsmankin.github.io/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of Washington - doubled bond buybacks, a yen rescue, a sudden fondness for stablecoins - aren't policy. They're symptoms. The arithmetic of debt, entitlements, and interest has crossed a threshold from which, Gromen argues, there are only three exits, and none of them are painless. We've got a crisis hiding in plain sight - and someone is gunna end up paying for it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:21) - Past Episode Reflections

(00:49) - Bitcoin and AI Disagreements

(01:58) - Luke Returns to the Show

(02:24) - Why Everything Feels Faster

(03:52) - Bessent and Bond Buybacks

(08:11) - True Interest Expense Alarm

(15:00) - Is It a Crisis Yet

(20:38) - Crisis Symptoms and Options

(26:54) - Japan Treasury Selling Fears

(29:06) - Allies Follow China Playbook

(34:01) - Stablecoins and CLARITY Act

(36:07) - No Silver Bullet

(36:48) - Inflation Over Bonds

(38:39) - Gold and Bitcoin Hedge

(39:09) - No Currency Alternative

(40:44) - China Gold Yuan System

(43:33) - Gold as Neutral Reserve

(48:31) - Multipolar Reserve Trap

(50:32) - Zugzwang and Supply Chains

(55:30) - Back to Gold Energy Link

(01:01:08) - AI Boom Then Bust

(01:04:00) - White Collar Disruption

(01:10:37) - Closing Thoughts and Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

Forest For The Trees - https://fftt-llc.com/about/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went viral for tracing one of these mysterious bulk orders - following overlooked books into Amazon warehouses filled with entire categories of obscure human knowledge. Today we're taking the plunge into a mystery that spans artificial intelligence, culture, and the LTV of a "rare" book.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Episode setup and guest intro

(01:22) - Mic check and welcome

(02:01) - Viral post and lawsuit context

(04:05) - Who is Charlie Becker

(10:40) - Amazon warehouse mystery

(13:02) - Which books are vanishing

(16:28) - FBA arbitrage and pulping

(18:53) - Amazon irony and AI layer

(22:11) - ISBN gap and metadata tool

(26:12) - Missing middle and preservation risk

(28:36) - Used Bookstore Churn Myth

(29:27) - Why Obscure Books Matter

(30:33) - AI Is Not Retrieval

(32:30) - Cookbook Chef Metaphor

(33:51) - Smaller Models Personal Agents

(34:38) - Houston Bookstore Renaissance

(37:31) - Book Crawl Themed Shops

(40:00) - Foreign Language Treasure Troves

(46:06) - Estate Libraries Rare Finds

(47:02) - Mystery Bulk Orders Explained

(51:22) - Optimism And Preservation Tool

(54:44) - Internet Slop Back To Bookstores

(57:22) - Closing Thanks And Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro welcomes back Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law and former White House senior director for international economics. Trump keeps finding new legal tools - including a forgotten 1930 law now aimed at Canada - and companies have stopped investing because they can't guess what comes next :/ Also, Washington has quietly bought stakes in 37 companies, with no rules and almost no transparency around any of it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(00:27) - Why Tariffs Matter Now

(02:18) - Rapid Fire Tariff Tools

(03:29) - Supreme Court Fallout

(05:44) - Graham Sanctions Act

(10:22) - Smoot Hawley Meets USMCA

(11:35) - Canada Tariff Mechanics

(15:49) - What Trump Wants

(21:35) - USMCA Future Scenarios

(23:47) - After Trump Trade Path

(25:30) - Next President Tariff Reset

(28:21) - Trade Policy Inflection

(29:25) - Biden vs Trump Tariffs

(30:45) - China Tariffs Reality

(33:08) - Rules of Origin Loopholes

(35:52) - Democrats China Debate

(37:22) - Industrial Policy Needed

(39:25) - Drones Case Study

(44:14) - Manufacturing Culture Shift

(48:29) - Investment Needs Certainty

(50:41) - Government Equity Stakes

(52:13) - Sovereign Wealth Concerns

(56:03) - Wrap Up and Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure.

Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap.

Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two

(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format

(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments

(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test

(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree

(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War

(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics

(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage

(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate

(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons

(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform

(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink

(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice

(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts

(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics

(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs

(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale

(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist

(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion

(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable

(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology

(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained

(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective

(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser

(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart

(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion

(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism

(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans

(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty

(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home

(01:06:18) - Can Places Change

(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory

(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis

(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset

(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis

(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains

(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question

(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at https://audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: https://www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?

The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(02:05) - Reunion at the Table

(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format

(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization

(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout

(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash

(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate

(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn

(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check

(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear

(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios

(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame

(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves

(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke

(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate

(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union

(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks

(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession

(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear

(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum

(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario

(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion

(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints

(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash

(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster

(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons

(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation

(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate

(01:09:31) - End of Nation State

(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity

(01:12:04) - Broken World of More

(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse

(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand

(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply

(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal

(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions

(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown

(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break

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Referenced in the Show:

https://zeihan.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China Global South Project, joins the pod to discuss the developments on the other side of the globe. From Ho Chi Minh City, Eric explains how the Global South actually sees the US-Iran war, why nobody expects China to ride to anyone's rescue, and how Vietnam's tariff and energy shocks became a never-again moment. He and Jacob dig into the myth that tariffs can implode China, America's fading China literacy, and why the next order won't be Chinese-led - but China will be its transformational character.

*Note: There are some weird buzzing sounds in the pod, we know! There was some sort of issue uploading the audio, we're on it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:46) - World Cup Travel Chaos

(02:01) - Soccer Politics and Tensions

(03:33) - Meet Eric Olander

(05:32) - China’s Transformation Story

(07:54) - Global South Views of China

(10:26) - China as Daily Operating System

(13:12) - Pew Poll Surprises Explained

(14:10) - Southeast Asia vs Northeast Asia

(17:32) - Why Philippines Aligns With US

(20:10) - Japan Taiwan Flashpoint

(21:15) - Supply Chains and Sea Lanes

(23:36) - Japan Rearms for Post US Era

(28:19) - Japan’s Regional Influence

(30:38) - Japan as Counterbalance

(32:04) - Drone Age Security Shift

(33:05) - South China Sea Alarm

(33:28) - Iran War Global South

(38:37) - China Gains and Risks

(40:46) - No Alliance Expectations

(43:51) - ICBM Test Explained

(47:40) - Decoupling and US Pragmatists

(50:35) - People to People Breakdown

(54:41) - China Blowing Europe Window

(58:56) - Mutual Misunderstanding Finale

(59:55) - Closing Thanks and Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Mentioned in this episode:

Check Out Future Hindsight!

If you enjoy our podcast, check out our homies over at Future Hindsight! It's an award-winning weekly podcast that takes big ideas about civic life and democracy and turns them into action items for you and me. Learn more at www.futurehindsight.com/

Jacob grabs Chris Branch, senior writer at The Athletic and author of The Pulse, to talk about the World Cup as geopolitics. They cover Trump's red-card intervention and the Balogun controversy, England-Argentina and the ghost of the Falklands, why sports and politics were never actually separate, and why China and India can barely qualify while Cape Verde runs wild. Plus: whether soccer ever truly takes hold in America, and why it might take a billionaire treating the sport like a Carnegie library to make it happen.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:41) - In-Person Catch-Up

(02:40) - Meet Chris Branch

(03:28) - Why This World Cup Hit Different

(05:09) - Sports Writing Meets Politics

(07:11) - Fan Culture and National Rivalries

(10:24) - FIFA Corruption and New Fans

(14:03) - Picking a Premier League Team

(15:16) - Can Soccer Catch On in America

(17:49) - Why MLS Struggles

(21:55) - Pay-to-Play and US Development

(29:22) - Women’s Soccer and Global Gaps

(33:47) - Trump, FIFA, and the Balogun Saga

(35:29) - Red Card Controversy

(36:25) - Iran Match Bad Karma

(37:37) - Play Anyway Debate

(42:22) - Sports as Common Ground

(44:37) - Stars Politics and Fandom

(56:10) - Money Youth Sports Future

(01:04:53) - Closing Stories and Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

The Pulse -https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/newsletters/the-pulse/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Mentioned in this episode:

Check out Marketplace Morning Report!

If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Check out Marketplace Morning Report!

If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Jacob sits down with J Mintzmyer of Value Investors Edge for a shipping deep-dive (but of course it's a geopolitics lesson in disguise). Mintzmyer argues the industry has barely changed in eleven years, most of the efficiency gains, double hulls, eco-designed vessels, LNG boil-off fixes, were locked in over a decade ago, leaving only regulation to move the needle. The two dig into why the US lost shipbuilding to Japan, Korea, and now China, how the Jones Act complicates the picture, and why America's real shot at relevance lies in owning and financing vessels, not building them.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(01:20) - Meet J Mintzmyer

(02:38) - Shipping for Dummies

(06:24) - How Shipping Demand Works

(08:30) - Has Shipping Changed

(16:48) - US Shipbuilding Decline

(26:14) - Tonnage Tax Loophole

(27:15) - Make US Shipping Competitive

(27:54) - Finance Incentives Not Sanctions

(28:56) - Why US Shipbuilding Lags

(31:31) - China Shipbuilding Dominance

(44:36) - Automation And Future Innovation

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Referenced in the Show:

Twitter: https://x.com/mintzmyer

Website: http://www.vieresearch.com

Box book: https://www.amazon.com/Box-Shipping-Container-Smaller-Economy/dp/0691170819

Chinese automated shipyard (video): https://youtu.be/RXr03aRF_p8?si=1cjIBZaFeTTqhutD

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Mentioned in this episode:

Check out Marketplace Morning Report!

If you're enjoying the Jacob Shapiro Podcast, make sure to check out Marketplace's Morning Report! The team gives you the economy without the anxiety, in the amount of time it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Learn more at: www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report

Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.

Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.

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Referenced in the Show:

Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance

(03:49) - Is the War Over

(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War

(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran

(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility

(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate

(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock

(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition

(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics

(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception

(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/

Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz

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Jacob Shapiro Site: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: https://x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: https://jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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