The Chuck ToddCast

It’s Election Day, and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza arrive at a binary: either Democrats pick up seven Senate seats tonight, or the polling industry has to be blown up and rebuilt. The final Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in all seven states that will decide the Senate, with only Iowa and Alaska inside a point, and the final NBC survey has Democrats up seven, independents going Democratic by 21, and Trump at 40 percent approval — his worst of either term. Their real question is whether the political class is underselling it, since every predictive metric points the same way and Chuck thinks the polling error is as likely to break toward Democrats as against them. Plus: a walk back through one deranged cycle, Chuck’s coma test for why Iowa tells the whole story, what a sweep actually means in Washington, why leading with impeachment would be the dumbest available move, and Miami at Notre Dame. The Projection, their election-night stream with Decision Desk HQ, starts at 6 p.m. Eastern.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seehttp://kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

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Timeline

00:00 Election Day, Chuck’s playlist, and one genuinely crazy midterm cycle
08:00 Liberation Day, Virginia as the forecaster, and the chart behind the collapse
14:00 The final polls: how the electorate moved, and a pollster’s own warning
20:00 Either Democrats pick up seven seats, or the polling industry is dead
28:00 Kalshi’s last coin flip, Chris Murphy, and the Iowa coma test
34:00 If there’s a wave: tariffs first, impeachment last, and can Jeffries govern?
44:00 The Projection at 6 p.m., and Catholics versus Criminals

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One day out, Chuck Todd reacts to Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers over Abdul El-Sayed — a stunning turn that cost Stevens her staff and, Chuck argues, likely her future in the Democratic Party. The rift escalated over a Cenk Uygur-produced ad El-Sayed disavowed, and Chuck notes the asymmetry: Ralph Norman told South Carolina Republicans to vote their conscience and got a fraction of the coverage. His broader read is that Stevens may have turned El-Sayed into a martyr, and that the establishment forfeits any “we told you so” if he loses. The rest is a full election-night field guide: what Iowa tells you about the wave, the Cuban vote in Miami-Dade, the Rio Grande Valley, Lake Erie counties in Ohio, Wichita, and why a Phil Scott loss in Vermont means Susan Collins can’t survive Maine.

Finally, he hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit his four favorite midterm election upsets, answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seehttp://kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

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Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:00 “The Projection” election night livestream

03:15 Haley Stevens, El-Sayed, and the endorsement that torched a career

11:15 The Young Turks ad, Islamophobia, and Michigan’s early vote

18:30 South Carolina shifts, and Ralph Norman’s permission slip

20:30 Ranked choice voting as the real loser in Alaska

23:30 The NYT backlash and the risk of audience capture

30:15 Will the Obama-Trump voter come home? Will the Trump voter show up?

36:00 Florida: Miami-Dade, the Panhandle, and how Jolly beats Donalds

39:15 Georgia, Ohio’s Lake Erie counties, and Maine’s mid-coast

46:30 Michigan, Mississippi, Kansas, Texas, Iowa and Nebraska — what to watch

1:06:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Chuck’s 4 favorite midterm election upsets

1:08:30 1982 - Tom Bradley loses in California

1:12:15 1994 - Mario Cuomo loses reelection for his 4th term to George Pataki

1:16:00 1998 - Jesse Ventura wins Minnesota governor’s race

1:20:30 1998 - “The impeachment election”

1:26:30 Ask Chuck

1:26:45 What long term price will JD Vance pay for supporting Ramaswamy ad?

1:29:45 How would history be different if Al Gore won in 2000?

1:34:15 Do political yard signs actually accomplish anything?

1:37:00 Jamie Raskin’s potential for role as Speaker of the House?

1:40:30 Are senior military leaders prepared for a constitutional crisis?

1:43:00 Thoughts on Trump covering diversity mural before a rally?

1:49:00 Will all the swing states go one way in 2026 like they did in 2024?

1:52:15 What does GOP ceding airwaves in DC mean?

1:55:00 College football recap

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become.

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:45 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter

07:00 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back

13:15 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play

18:15 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it

21:30 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks

26:00 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook

29:45 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa

32:30 A more factionalized GOP than people realize

35:30 The shock results that would signal a huge wave

39:30 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds

50:30 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?

54:30 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything.

Then, Reid Wilson — founder of Pluribus News and GM of enterprise news at State Affairs — joins the Chuck ToddCast for the midterm story nobody in Washington covers: 88 state chambers and roughly 6,000 legislative seats on the ballot. His read is that Republicans are in line for a genuinely bad night at the state level. Democrats need only two seats in each Arizona chamber to flip the legislature, Wisconsin is in play despite gerrymandering, a Gina Hinojosa win likely brings the Texas House with it, and Republicans could lose supermajorities in Ohio, Kansas and Florida. Wilson flags affordability as the dominant issue with data centers climbing fast — and says if Greg Abbott loses, data centers are why. He also argues Rob Sand wins Iowa going away, that Ramaswamy’s money won’t save him, and that if anti-Trump Republican Phil Scott loses in Vermont, it tells you exactly how toxic the party brand has become.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seehttp://kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan

05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently

11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?

15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay

22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage

25:00 Election night livestream details

28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm

35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment

39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06

44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal

49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split

55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling

1:10:30 Reid Wilson joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:12:15 What State Affairs covers, and why 88 chambers matter

1:17:30 How the state map collapsed for Democrats — and where it’s turning back

1:23:45 Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and the chambers in play

1:28:45 Rob Sand, supermajorities at risk, and the issues driving it

1:32:00 Affordability, data centers, and who’s writing the checks

1:36:30 Prediction markets running the sportsbook playbook

1:40:15 The voucher backlash and what happened in Iowa

1:43:00 A more factionalized GOP than people realize

1:46:00 The shock results that would signal a huge wave

1:50:00 Oregon, Minnesota, Vermont, and Nevada’s undecideds

2:01:00 Can Democrats win statewide in Florida?

2:05:00 Ballot initiatives to watch — abortion, trans sports, and major tax fights

2:16:45 Ask Chuck

2:18:00 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?

2:22:45 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?

2:25:45 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?

2:36:30 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?

2:41:15 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?

2:45:15 College football preview

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that operatives tied to Mary Peltola’s campaign and the DSCC actively recruited the second Dan Sullivan onto Alaska’s Senate ballot — a Democratic consultant reportedly flew to a remote village to convince a retired teacher to run. Peltola’s campaign has denied involvement; a former campaign manager told the Times Peltola wasn’t personally involved but was “definitely aware.” Chuck Todd calls it a genuine October surprise, though not a unique tactic — both parties have boosted spoiler candidates for decades — and notes Democrats get held to a higher standard precisely because voters assume Trump will cheat. With ranked-choice voting, he’s skeptical it moves the race much. He’s far less forgiving on Ohio, where the Daily Mail tracked down Amy Acton’s stepfather and his daughter, meaning everyone that man traumatized has now been forced to relive it. Then: what Chuck’s watching on election night, starting with Indiana and Kentucky at poll close and ending with Iowa as the bellwether for everything.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seehttp://kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: CHUCKTODD

http://kalshi.com/r/CHUCKTODD

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:30 The NYT report on the second Dan Sullivan

05:30 Both parties do this — and why Democrats get judged differently

11:00 Does it actually change the Alaska race?

15:45 The Acton ad’s collateral damage, and the price Ramaswamy will pay

22:00 Political mercenaries, Roger Marshall, and selective outrage

25:00 Election night livestream details

28:15 Why Iowa is the bellwether for the entire midterm

35:00 The Iowa Senate race as the purest test of the environment

39:00 First tea leaves: IN-05, IN-01 and KY-06

44:45 Virginia’s predictive power and the VA-05 tsunami signal

49:30 Florida timing, Georgia after midnight, and the likely Texas split

55:30 Probability vs. possibility — and the decline of exit polling

1:08:30 Ask Chuck

1:09:45 Any connection between local sports teams’ success and election results?

1:14:30 If Dems sweep both chambers, worth bringing the Lankford border bill up for a vote?

1:17:30 How can average person distinguish credible polls from bad ones?

1:28:15 How do you justify Miami’s #1 ranking when they haven’t beaten a ranked team?

1:33:00 When Trump's presidency is done, who’s tell-all are you most looking forward to?

1:37:00 College football preview

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides

04:30 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders

08:45 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders?

12:15 What can actually be done on affordability

14:45 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch

19:45 Would either party talk him into caucusing?

24:30 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand

32:00 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule

34:45 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana

38:30 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking

45:30 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party.

Then, Seth Bodnar — Green Beret, former GE executive, and former University of Montana president now running for Senate as an independent — joins the Chuck ToddCast a week out. He’s assembled a genuinely strange coalition: Pete Buttigieg endorsed him over the Democratic nominee, and both sides of Montana’s 1992 governor’s race, Republican Marc Racicot and Democrat Dorothy Bradley, are backing him. Bodnar’s military background drives his sharpest material — he argues Hegseth politicizing the military would have dire consequences, and that senior officers are now resigning rather than carry out unlawful orders, facing a brutal choice between staying to mitigate harm or leaving in protest. He says he won’t organize with either party, argues half of Senate votes are procedural and an independent can force real debate, and makes the case that one-party dominance in any state is unhealthy. Plus affordability, universal coverage, and whether Montana moves up to FBS.

Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel

08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency

12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted

20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate

24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening

28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates

33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio

40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex

48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson

50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets

1:08:15 Seth Bodnar joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:09:45 Regrets about running as an independent, and endorsements from both sides

1:12:45 Hegseth, politicizing the military, and officers resigning over unlawful orders

1:17:00 Should Congress subpoena senior military leaders?

1:20:30 What can actually be done on affordability

1:23:00 Corporate concentration, antitrust, and the housing crunch

1:28:00 Would either party talk him into caucusing?

1:32:45 Rural America, the Bankhead question, and where the polls stand

1:40:15 Reagan, Putin, and the danger of unchecked one-party rule

1:43:00 Universal coverage and what Medicaid means in Montana

1:46:45 Education, AI literacy, and critical thinking

1:53:45 FBS, collective bargaining, and the future of college football

2:05:30 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ

2:06:00 Ask Chuck

2:06:15 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset?

2:08:15 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate?

2:12:45 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers?

2:15:00 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects

2:19:15 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens?

2:21:45 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP?

2:30:45 How did Tim Russert influence your career?

2:36:45 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms?

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd zooms out to a global pattern: Trump-aligned right-wing leaders have now lost in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel, all on massive turnout. Lula beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.8-48.2 in a race widely read as a test of Trump’s influence in Latin America, after Trump met with Bolsonaro and imposed tariffs over the charges against his father. Serbia’s student movement ended Aleksandar Vučić’s 14 years in power on the highest turnout in three decades. Chuck argues Trump didn’t cause these results but wasn’t irrelevant to them either — voters are rejecting a model, not just incumbents. Back home, he notes Democrats could lose both Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate, that South Carolina is becoming remarkably competitive, and that Trump’s closing message — Venezuela as the 51st state, celebrating oil industry profits, feuding with Bill Maher over an Obama Cheesecake Factory joke — is making everything worse for his party.

Finally, Chuck unloads the mailbag with an extended edition of “Ask Chuck”.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 Trump allies lose in Brazil, Serbia, Hungary and Israel

08:00 A rejection of the right, not just anti-incumbency

12:45 What happens to Israel if Bibi is ousted

20:45 Democrats could lose Maine and Michigan and still win the Senate

24:15 South Carolina, Kansas, and the paths that are opening

28:45 Bannon’s theory about protecting moderates

33:15 Trump off-message: Venezuela, oil profits, and a missing Rubio

40:30 The Bill Maher feud and Trump’s Obama complex

48:15 DOJ strikes out against Comey and Hutchinson

50:45 $1.4 billion wagered on the midterms & the case for regulating prediction markets

1:06:15 Don’t miss our election night livestream with Chris Cillizza and DDHQ

1:06:45 Ask Chuck

1:07:00 If the GOP suffers significant losses, could they use impeachment as a reset?

1:09:00 Are Democrats going to walk back support on trans issues to appear moderate?

1:13:30 Are gaffes and comms issues more a reflection of candidates or yes-man staffers?

1:15:45 If Republicans get wiped out in midterms, what does that do to Vance’s prospects

1:20:00 If Ramaswamy wins, how should we think about our fellow citizens?

1:22:30 What’s behind the shocking bigotry and Islamophobia we’re seeing from GOP?

1:31:30 How did Tim Russert influence your career?

1:37:30 How will Trump’s foreign policy change after the midterms?

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore how the Buckeyes became a college football powerhouse and the complicated legacy of legendary coach Woody Hayes.

From the historic Michigan rivalry and the infamous Snow Bowl to Hayes' coaching philosophy, controversial temper, and lasting influence, they uncover the people and moments that built Ohio State's football dynasty.

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One week out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza go hunting for the counterfactual — the actual data that would tell a Republican this election isn’t what it looks like — and come back with exactly one: a polling error. “That’s a hell of a thing to bank on.” Chuck argues this is the worst version of Trump we’ve ever seen in an election year, a candidate reduced to the Nobel committee and calling Abdul El-Sayed a “jihadist” in Michigan, while his own top economic adviser went on Fox Business to call the affordability crisis a myth eight days out. Plus: why Democrats may run better in red states than blue, how Republicans sat on their money until it was too late to define Talarico, how Ohio got away entirely, what the Ramaswamy ad says about where the line is, and the new Times/Siena 2028 numbers. Plus their election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ.

18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Seehttp://kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS

http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS

Timeline:

00:00 One week out: what could still change this, and the red-state theory

07:00 The worst version of Trump, and a party that won’t say “affordability”

13:00 Hunting for the counterfactual, and why every Republican ad is nostalgia

19:00 The money came too late: how they let Talarico define Paxton

24:00 Kalshi: Iowa, Maine and Kansas as the three most divided markets

30:00 Where the line is on the Ramaswamy ad, and building a firewall

36:00 Adding states to the 2028 map, and Minnesota’s outlier year

44:00 Times/Siena 2028: Harris at 12, Vance at 33, and a wide-open field

52:00 “All the Projection”: the election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ

58:00 The World Series, the sports equinox, and a two-Hurricane Heisman problem

1:05:00 Newsphere, one more show on Election Day, and sign-off

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history

04:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it

09:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage

17:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out

23:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development?

26:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks

29:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem

36:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field

39:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary

48:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations.

Then, Thomas Nelson — Outagamie County Executive, former Wisconsin state assemblyman, and author of The Green and Gold Standard: A People’s History of the Green Bay Packers — joins the Chuck ToddCast to explain why the NFL’s only fan-owned franchise now faces an existential threat. The league has since banned the Packers’ nonprofit structure, and private equity has created what Nelson estimates is a $900 million disadvantage: a single owner can sell 49% to PE and retain complete control, while the Packers legally can’t sell to anyone. The crunch point is the escrow required for guaranteed contracts. Nelson argues the league owes it to Green Bay to make the team whole, walks through the three eras that built the franchise — Lambeau, Lombardi, and Harlan — and notes that without this model the Packers would have left town decades ago. Plus whether the community-ownership structure could be a template for local development, and a look at Wisconsin’s 50-50 politics heading into November.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?

15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting

19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash

23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote

29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave

32:15 Republicans have no closing argument

42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins

47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals

57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play

1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles

1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people

1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election

1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days

1:33:00 Thomas Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:34:00 How a county executive ended up writing the definitive Packers history

1:37:30 The nonprofit structure, and why the NFL banned it

1:42:45 Private equity and a $900 million disadvantage

1:50:45 Guaranteed contracts, escrow, and where the money runs out

1:56:00 Could the Packers model work for data centers and local development?

1:59:45 Teams that relocate purely for tax breaks

2:02:15 Lambeau, Lombardi, Harlan — and the Aaron Rodgers problem

2:09:30 What the financial gap actually means on the field

2:12:15 Wisconsin as a 50-50 state and the chaos of the Senate primary

2:21:30 What LaFleur needs to keep his job

2:24:00 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964

2:25:15 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech

2:27:45 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment

2:29:15 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights

2:31:00 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message

2:33:00 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country

2:34:15 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people

2:37:30 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message

2:42:00 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd can’t find a single tea leaf that cuts against the blue wave. Early voting in Texas shows Latino turnout running ahead of the 2024 presidential, with the biggest jump among young Hispanic voters furious about ICE overreach. Florida Democrats are up 91% in early in-person voting despite rule changes designed to hurt them. Chuck’s deeper question: everyone assumes polling error favors Republicans — what if this is the cycle it breaks the other way? Meanwhile Trump has directed DOJ to preemptively sue Alaska to block certification if Dan Sullivan loses to Mary Peltola, is trying to invalidate 20,000 California ballots, and is attacking Lisa Murkowski — the most popular Republican in Alask. Plus Musk pouring another $78 million into GOP coffers (nearing half a billion this cycle) while a Russian company angles for a stake in an Alaska gas project discussed during Ukraine negotiations.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the long lasting impacts of Ronald Reagan’s “A Time For Choosing” speech and why persuasion should matter as much as performance in politics.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

09:00 The polling drought — and what if the error favors Democrats?

15:45 Latino turnout surges in Texas early voting

19:30 ICE overreach and the Hispanic backlash

23:00 Young voters, El-Sayed, and the Florida early vote

29:30 Searching for a counter-argument to the wave

32:15 Republicans have no closing argument

42:00 Easing tariffs to save Susan Collins

47:30 The Ramaswamy ad and what Trump’s delight in it reveals

57:30 Musk’s half-billion, Starlink, and the Skydance play

1:06:00 Novatek, Alaska gas, and Putin’s business dangles

1:13:00 Trump’s own tax breaks and rules that only bind other people

1:17:15 Suing to invalidate Alaska’s election

1:23:30 A president consumed by grievance in the final days

1:32:15 ToddCast Time Machine - Tuesday, October 27th 1964

1:33:30 Ronald Reagan gives “A Time For Choosing” speech

1:36:00 Goldwater’s victory was a rebuttal to the Republican establishment

1:37:30 Goldwater’s conservatism became synonymous with anti civil rights

1:39:15 Reagan travelled the country and honed his message

1:41:15 Reagan became capable of articulating conservatism to the country

1:42:30 Reagan didn’t try to “own the libs”, he tried to persuade people

1:45:45 Modern politics is too focused on the messenger, not the message

1:50:15 Performance has to lead to tangible governing results

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.

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For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad

12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues

17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters

19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election

24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map

30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification

36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity

43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?

45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi

51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out

54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it

1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day

1:19:00 Ask Chuck

1:19:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?

1:23:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?

1:28:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?

1:32:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out

1:33:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?

1:39:00 College football preview

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?

04:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN

08:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney

12:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning

17:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money

24:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums

29:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman

36:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback

38:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation

45:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens on the Wedgewood Polls scandal — a firm that admitted this week it fabricated its data as an “experiment,” after Mallory McMorrow says the fake numbers killed her Michigan Senate campaign. Chuck argues it’s worthy of a real investigation and that McMorrow should consider civil litigation. Then the main event: a NYT/Siena poll putting Democrats +11 on both the generic House and Senate ballots, with a clean sweep on issue favorability. At D+11, Chuck says Democrats net 40-50 House seats and win Ohio, Texas, Maine, Iowa and Alaska. The generational numbers are the ones that should terrify the GOP — only 15% of voters under 30 and 20% of millennials identify as Republican, and this electorate would have given Kamala Harris a 3-point win. Plus: Vance defending Ramaswamy’s Ohio ad on the grounds that all tactics are fair if you win.

Wall Street journalist William D. Cohan — author of the New York Times bestseller Money to Burn, on Leon Black and the rise of Apollo — joins the Chuck ToddCast to connect the dots between media consolidation, private equity, and the opaque corner of finance the ToddCast has been chasing since the Lakers special report. Cohan explains why Skydance needs CNN’s cash flow to service $80 billion in debt, why Trump may kill Nexstar’s bid for ABC out of spite toward Disney, and how a sports franchise purchase actually gets financed — including whether Mark Walter bought the Dodgers or insurance premiums did. On Black, Cohan had extensive access: Black maintains the hundreds of millions he paid Epstein were for tax and estate planning, and an investigation he commissioned found no nefarious activity, though Cohan is skeptical anyone pays that much for tax advice. His closing warning echoes Chuck’s: after 2008 regulators pushed risky assets outside the banks, and the new shadow banking system is barely regulated at all. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the weekend in college football.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

9:00 The fake polling scandal and separating good polls from bad

12:00 NYT/Siena: Democrats +11 and a clean sweep on the issues

17:00 The Habba pardon deal and Trump threatening voters

19:45 Why under-30 turnout decides this election

24:00 What D+11 actually means for the House and Senate map

30:00 The generational collapse of Republican identification

36:15 “Poor” economic conditions and Trump’s historic unpopularity

43:15 Every indicator says wave — but what if the polling error cuts the other way?

45:45 Talarico pulls away, and Democrats spend in Mississippi

51:00 How ugly politics locks good people out

54:00 Ramaswamy message-tested that ad — and Vance defended it

1:04:15 Four things Chuck wishes he knew before Election Day

1:21:00 William D. Cohan joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:23:30 Will public companies offload their news networks?

1:25:15 Skydance’s $80 billion debt and why it needs CNN

1:29:15 Nexstar, ABC, and Trump’s grudge against Disney

1:33:15 Netflix, YouTube, Apple, and who’s actually winning

1:38:45 Redbird, overinflated valuations, and the Lakers money

1:45:30 Trophy purchases, the Dodgers, and insurance premiums

1:50:00 Private equity as a business — and as a political boogeyman

1:57:30 Bessent as sycophant, and the treasury buyback

1:59:30 Leon Black, Epstein, and an attempted rehabilitation

2:06:00 Shadow banking and the crisis we’ll regulate afterward

2:15:00 Ask Chuck

2:15:30 What would happen if Missouri's new map gets thrown out?

2:19:30 Which bellwether counties are on your radar?

2:24:30 Could Trump’s Russia friendly policy come down to a man-crush on Putin?

2:28:00 How will Massachusetts replace Lt. Gov candidate who dropped out

2:29:30 If Dems win the senate is eliminating the filibuster inevitable?

2:35:00 College football preview

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Todd get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over.

Timeline:

00:00 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris

04:00 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison

07:30 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten

11:45 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw

15:00 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office

23:30 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror

27:30 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812

31:15 Laying out the city of New York

34:15 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets

42:30 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically

47:30 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility.

Then, Stateline executive editor Scott Greenberger joins the Chuck ToddCast to argue for a founder most Americans have never heard of. In The Forsaken Founder, Greenberger makes the case that Gouverneur Morris has as strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison does — he was the best writer among the founders, the one who drafted the final text, and the one who stood up most forcefully against slavery, calling the three-fifths clause a fatal flaw and warning the country could not remain half slave and half free. So why is he forgotten? Partly because he never sought the presidency, partly because he rubbed people the wrong way, and partly because the Virginians who won the presidency wrote the history. Greenberger also wrote a biography of Chester A. Arthur, and he and Chuck get into the forgotten eras of American politics, the Garfield counterfactual, and why you never know you’re living through a political era until it’s over.

Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument

06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party

10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami

12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary

14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy

15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton

18:45 Congress needs to investigate

27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption?

32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother

38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it

43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket?

47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now?

56:45 Scott Greenberger joins The Chuck ToddCast

58:15 Why resurface Gouverneur Morris

1:00:45 As strong a claim to writing the Constitution as Madison

1:04:15 Why he rubbed people the wrong way — and was forgotten

1:08:30 “Half slavery and half free” and the three-fifths flaw

1:11:45 The Bronx estate, the voting franchise, and a man who never sought office

1:20:15 Morris in France, the king, and the Reign of Terror

1:24:15 Feuding with Madison over the War of 1812

1:28:00 Laying out the city of New York

1:31:00 Garfield, Arthur, and the eras history forgets

1:39:15 The what-ifs, and where Trump may land historically

1:44:15 Stateline, the death of local news, and AI in the newsroom

1:52:00 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip

1:52:15 #1 North Carolina

1:53:00 #2 Ohio

1:54:15 #3 Texas

1:55:30 #4 Alaska

1:56:00 #5 Maine

1:57:15 #6 Kansas

1:58:30 #7 Michigan

2:00:00 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska

2:05:00 Ask Chuck

2:05:15 Why not eliminate political parties entirely?

2:11:15 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t?

2:15:15 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors?

2:17:30 Could Starshield decision be a war crime?

2:20:30 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal?

See https://omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues corruption may be the Democrats’ best closing argument, drawing the 2006 parallel: the Mark Foley scandal gave Republican voters permission to vote against their own party, and tying the cost of living to a kleptocracy could do the same thing now. He’s bullish on the Senate, puts a blue tsunami at 15-20%, and points to Péter Magyar’s Hungary campaign as proof the corruption argument works. The Musk-Starshield reporting sharpens it — the richest man in the world appears to be shaping American foreign policy while funding Ken Paxton after every other donor walked away. Then Ohio: a video featuring Amy Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar, from a woman who stayed married to the man Acton says raped her at twelve. Acton’s brother called it a despicable low; Ramaswamy’s campaign didn’t deny it and kept attacking her credibility.

Finally, he updates his ToddCast Top 10 list of senate seats most likely to flip parties and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to http://askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area.

Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too!

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Corruption as the Democrats’ closing argument

06:00 The 2006 parallel and permission to vote against your own party

10:00 Bullish on the Senate, and the odds of a tsunami

12:15 What Magyar proved in Hungary

14:15 Musk, Starshield, and buying American foreign policy

15:30 Why Musk is the only one funding Paxton

18:45 Congress needs to investigate

27:30 Can voters connect their struggles to the corruption?

32:00 The Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother

38:00 What we know and don’t about who produced it

43:45 Could it take down the entire Ohio GOP ticket?

47:45 Character and corruption in the Trump era — until now?

0:54:15 ToddCast Top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip

0:54:30 #1 North Carolina

0:55:15 #2 Ohio

0:56:30 #3 Texas

0:57:45 #4 Alaska

0:58:15 #5 Maine

0:59:30 #6 Kansas

1:00:45 #7 Michigan

1:02:15 #8 Iowa, #9 South Carolina #10 Nebraska

1:07:15 Ask Chuck

1:07:30 Why not eliminate political parties entirely?

1:13:30 What do prediction market bettors know that pollsters don’t?

1:17:30 Why is Elon Musk exempt from ban on donations from defense contractors?

1:19:45 Could Starshield decision be a war crime?

1:22:45 Are voters starting to grow tired of Trump even if base remains loyal?

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With 14 days left, Chuck Todd & Chris Cillizza make the argument that should scare Republicans most: corruption has climbed to the number two or three issue, and unlike any other message, it hands a lifelong conservative permission to punish his own party without admitting he was ever wrong. The evidence is already in the ad buys — Trump appeared in 47% of Republican broadcast airings in May and 1% in October — even as he opens a nine-stop closing tour in Wichita and calls the polls rigged. Chuck and Chris dig into why his Senate coattails are a myth Republicans keep believing, read the Kalshi market where an Abbott-plus-Talarico split is the likeliest Texas outcome, and unpack the five-day implosion of press secretary Katie Zacharia. Then the hardest question either of them gets: if Democrats actually sweep, what does December look like? Chuck’s answer is paralysis inside both parties, a Schumer who won’t walk away, and a president who’s less a partisan than a dealmaker. Plus Ann Hornaday, Miami at No. 1, and the cheapest World Series ticket in years.

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Timeline:

00:00 Fourteen days out and Trump’s closing tour

08:00 Corruption, the permission slip, and ad data that gives the game away

15:00 What Trump says versus what he’d actually do after polls close

21:00 Kalshi: the Texas two-race market, vouchers, and the Beshear fight

29:00 The five-day press secretary and a West Wing built to keep Trump busy

35:00 What December actually looks like if Democrats sweep

43:00 DC statehood, the scorpion and the frog, and the race to replace him

49:00 Election-night tea leaves, and whether Schumer walks away

55:00 Miami–Florida State: the double-overtime finish and No. 1 since 2002

1:01:00 A 12-team playoff, Mensah, and the Arch Manning question

1:07:00 Rays–Brewers, and an election-night announcement coming

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